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Saudis and Iran Must Bridge 600000 Barrel Gap to Find OPEC Deal

  • by Leah Brady
  • in Worldwide
  • — Sep 28, 2016
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At meetings in Algeria this week, energy ministers from OPEC and other oil-producing countries are discussing whether to freeze production levels to boost global oil prices.

Zanganeh signalled that an agreement to stabilise oil prices could be struck at a November 30 meeting in Vienna of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"The main impediments to a deal are the upside risks to production from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Libya", says Dhar.

"There are still some obstacles preventing an agreement", he said, giving no further details.

"The market was falling with the growing realisation that there will be no effective OPEC deal, then helped along by the IEA acknowledging the glut persisting through 2017", said Sarah Emerson, managing director of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts. The oil bods are looking for balance and the market has said that's where it's happiest right now.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.26, or 2.7 percent, to $44.67.

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Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters the mood was positive and discussions were still on. Brent crude futures slipped 43 cents to $46.91 a barrel after closing up $1.46, or 3.2 percent.

In Australia, the ASX 200 climbed 0.42 percent in early trade, with most sectors trading higher. The comments came as Iran signaled it was unwilling to freeze production and wanted to raise output to 4 million barrels a day.

"If OPEC does freeze production and tries to bring the price back up, China may choose not to buy oil at the higher price and just use its reserves", she added.

In post-settlement trade, the market pared some losses after trade group The American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise draw of 752,000 barrels last week, versus analysts' forecasts of a build of 3 million barrels. Similar efforts at a collective freeze were scuttled in April after Saudi Arabia backed out because Iran wouldn't participate. US commercial crude oil stocks likely rose by an average of 2.8 million barrels to 507.4 million barrels in the week to September 23, reversing three weeks of unexpected drawdowns, a Reuters poll of seven analysts showed. Riyadh pumped about 10.69 million barrels per day in August, about 500,000 barrels higher than January levels.

"Trying to sell this to the domestic governments, monarchies and leaders of both nations would likely prove nearly impossible", he said in a note to clients. Standard Chartered believes demand is already out-stripping supply this month, spelling a "balanced" market, with the proviso that a large buildup of stocks has yet to be shifted.

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